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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 19.8% year-over-year in February

by Calculated Risk on 4/26/2022 09:16:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for February (“February” is a 3-month average of December, January and February prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Shows Annual Home Price Gains Increased To 19.8% In February

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census
divisions, reported a 19.8% annual gain in February, up from 19.1% in the previous month. The 10-City
Composite annual increase came in at 18.6%, up from 17.3% in the previous month. The 20-City
Composite posted a 20.2% year-over-year gain, up from 18.9% in the previous month.

Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in February.
Phoenix led the way with a 32.9% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 32.6%
increase and Miami with a 29.7% increase. All 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year
ending February 2022 versus the year ending January 2022.

Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 1.7% month-over-month increase in
February, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 2.4%.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.9%, and
the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively.

In February, all 20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.

“U.S. home prices continued to advance at a very rapid pace in February,” says Craig J. Lazzara,
Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index recorded a gain of 19.8% for the 12
months ended February 2022; the 10- and 20-City Composites rose 18.6% and 20.2%, respectively.All
three composites reflect an acceleration of price growth relative to January’s level.

“The macroeconomic environment is evolving rapidly and may not support extraordinary home price
growth for much longer. The post-COVID resumption of general economic activity has stoked inflation,
and the Federal Reserve has begun to increase interest rates in response. We may soon begin to see
the impact of increasing mortgage rates on home prices.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is up 2.3% in February (SA).

The Composite 20 index is up 2.4% (SA) in February.

The National index is 57% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 1.9% (SA) in February. The National index is up 112% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (SA).

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 18.6% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA is up 20.2% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 19.8% year-over-year.

Price increases were above expectations. I’ll have more later.

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