Deep Dive: #RIPTwitter? These numbers show the company has plenty of life

Twitter’s shares closed at $48.93 on April 22 — 10% below Musk’s takeout offer price. That showed a lack of confidence that a deal might get done.

But weekend rumors changed the scene, with Twitter’s stock opening at $51.02, now only 6% below Musk’s takeout price.

Rapid growth for Twitter, even without Musk

As we wait for an announcement of any deal, we have screened the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 this year: communication services. The sector was down 23% for 2022 through April 22, led by Netflix Inc.
NFLX,
-4.08%,
with a year-to-date decline of 64%. (Twitter was up 13% for 2022 through April 22.)

Great sales expectations

Here are all 23 stocks in the S&P 500 communication services sector, ranked by expected compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for sales over the next two calendar years among analysts polled by FactSet:

Company

Ticker

Two-year estimated sales CAGR

Estimated sales – 2022 ($mil)

Estimated sales – 2023 ($mil)

Estimated sales – 2024 ($mil)

Take-Two Interactive Software Inc.

TTWO,
-2.29%

28.6%

$3,975

$5,118

$6,571

Twitter Inc.

TWTR,
+3.05%

19.1%

$5,945

$7,222

$8,431

Match Group Inc.

MTCH,
+4.77%

16.8%

$3,519

$4,139

$4,798

Meta Platforms Inc. Class A

FB,
+0.55%

15.5%

$131,084

$152,913

$175,011

Alphabet Inc. Class A

GOOGL,
+2.74%

15.2%

$302,631

$349,239

$401,542

Activision Blizzard Inc.

ATVI,
-0.62%

10.5%

$8,601

$10,071

$10,504

Netflix Inc.

NFLX,
-4.08%

9.8%

$32,512

$35,551

$39,202

Live Nation Entertainment Inc.

LYV

9.8%

$14,012

$15,619

$16,887

Walt Disney Co.

DIS,
-0.54%

9.2%

$87,406

$96,433

$104,216

Electronic Arts Inc.

EA,
-0.69%

7.5%

$7,912

$8,480

$9,149

Interpublic Group of Cos. Inc.

IPG,
-1.27%

5.8%

$9,499

$9,869

$10,631

Paramount Global Class B

PARA,
-1.06%

5.3%

$30,588

$32,066

$33,918

Fox Corp. Class A

FOXA,
-0.89%

3.9%

$14,439

$14,886

$15,588

News Corp. Class A

NWSA,
-1.49%

3.9%

$10,340

$10,608

$11,153

Charter Communications Inc. Class A

CHTR,
-2.18%

3.8%

$54,170

$56,239

$58,354

Omnicom Group Inc

OMC,
-1.04%

3.3%

$14,352

$14,826

$15,322

Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. Series A

WBD,
-1.05%

3.0%

$12,611

$12,790

$13,375

T-Mobile US Inc.

TMUS,
-1.07%

2.9%

$80,971

$83,177

$85,749

Comcast Corp. Class A

CMCSA,
-0.42%

2.9%

$122,556

$124,791

$129,765

Verizon Communications Inc.

VZ,
-3.03%

2.0%

$136,935

$139,228

$142,373

DISH Network Corp. Class A

DISH,
-0.85%

0.9%

$17,380

$17,450

$17,687

AT&T Inc.

T,
-1.47%

-1.4%

$127,075

$121,924

$123,621

Lumen Technologies Inc.

LUMN,
-3.01%

-4.0%

$17,287

$15,735

$15,945

Source: FactSet

Click on the tickers for more about each company.

If you haven’t already done so, you should read Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

The estimates are for calendar years, because not every company’s fiscal year matches the calendar.

Twitter ranks second on the list for expected sales growth through 2023, even though only 11% of analysts polled by FactSet rate the shares a “buy” or the equivalent.

Rapid earnings growth expected

Here’s a similar comparison, this time sorting the components of the S&P 500 communication services sector by expected earnings-per-share CAGR through 2024:

Company

Ticker

Two-year estimated EPS CAGR

Estimated EPS – 2022

Estimated EPS – 2023

Estimated EPS – 2024

Live Nation Entertainment Inc.

LYV,
+0.55%

124.7%

$0.45

$1.49

$2.28

T-Mobile US Inc.

TMUS,
-1.07%

85.0%

$2.74

$6.12

$9.37

Take-Two Interactive Software Inc.

TTWO,
-2.29%

34.1%

$5.76

$7.79

$10.36

Twitter Inc.

TWTR,
+3.05%

31.7%

$0.85

$1.14

$1.48

Charter Communications Inc. Class A

CHTR,
-2.18%

25.4%

$30.55

$37.55

$48.02

Match Group Inc.

MTCH,
+4.77%

21.8%

$2.57

$3.22

$3.81

Walt Disney Co.

DIS,
-0.54%

19.1%

$4.76

$5.91

$6.75

Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. Series A

WBD,
-1.05%

18.9%

$2.23

$2.66

$3.15

News Corp. Class A

NWSA,
-1.49%

16.9%

$0.95

$1.07

$1.29

Alphabet Inc. Class A

GOOGL,
+2.74%

16.6%

$116.48

$137.13

$158.49

Meta Platforms Inc. Class A

FB,
+0.55%

16.5%

$12.13

$14.35

$16.47

Netflix Inc.

NFLX,
-4.08%

15.9%

$10.93

$12.14

$14.68

Comcast Corp. Class A

CMCSA,
-0.42%

14.4%

$3.54

$3.95

$4.64

Activision Blizzard Inc.

ATVI,
-0.62%

13.6%

$3.58

$4.35

$4.62

Electronic Arts Inc.

EA,
-0.69%

12.1%

$7.37

$8.20

$9.27

Interpublic Group of Cos. Inc.

IPG,
-1.27%

7.6%

$2.67

$2.86

$3.10

Fox Corp. Class A

FOXA,
-0.89%

7.2%

$3.29

$3.51

$3.77

Omnicom Group Inc

OMC,
-1.04%

6.7%

$6.72

$7.15

$7.65

Verizon Communications Inc.

VZ,
-3.03%

3.7%

$5.41

$5.59

$5.82

AT&T Inc.

T,
-1.47%

-0.7%

$2.53

$2.53

$2.49

Paramount Global Class B

PARA,
-1.06%

-1.3%

$2.76

$2.32

$2.68

Lumen Technologies Inc.

LUMN,
-3.01%

-15.5%

$1.42

$1.05

$1.01

DISH Network Corp. Class A

DISH,
-0.85%

-33.6%

$2.69

$1.69

$1.19

Source: FactSet

Twitter ranks fourth, with analysts expecting a two-year EPS CAGR of 31.7%. The top-ranked company, Live Nation Entertainment Inc.
LYV,
+0.55%,
is a pandemic recovery play as the concert business resumes.

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