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Final Look at Local Housing Markets in March and Housing Inventory Milestones to Watch

by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2022 12:04:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in March

A brief excerpt:

This final update for March adds Alabama, Columbus, Des Moines, Illinois, Indiana, Miami and New York.

Housing Inventory Milestones to Watch

1. The seasonal bottom.

2. Inventory up year-over-year (currently down 9.5% according to NAR)

3. Inventory up compared to two years ago (currently down 36%)

4. Inventory back to median for last decade (currently down 43%)

So far #1 has happened, and #2 will probably happen mid-year 2022. The following graph (using NAR inventory data) shows the above changes since January 2020. Even when inventory is up YoY (that will happen soon), we will still be a long way from normal levels of inventory.

I will discuss house prices vs. inventory next week after the Case-Shiller house price index is released.

Closed Sales in March

And a table of March sales. Sales in these areas were down 5.4% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). Sales were up YoY in about 30% of these markets. The NAR reported sales NSA in March (456,000) were 5.8% below sales in March 2021 (484,000). So, this sample of local markets is similar to the NAR report.

The table doesn’t include California where sales were down 4.4% year-over-year.

Notes for all tables:

1) New additions to table in BOLD.

2) Northwest (Seattle), North Texas (Dallas) and Santa Clara (San Jose), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS(R)

3) Totals do not include Atlanta or Denver (included in state totals).

There is much more in the article.

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