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Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI

by Calculated Risk on 4/28/2022 09:15:00 PM

o At 8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays, March 2021. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.6% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%. PCE prices are expected to be up 6.4% YoY, and core PCE prices up 5.3% YoY.

o At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for April. The consensus is for a reading of 62.0, down from 62.9 in March.

o At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (Final for April). The consensus is for a reading of 65.7.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID MetricsNowWeek
AgoGoalPercent fully Vaccinated66.1%—>=70.0%1Fully Vaccinated (millions)219.6—>=2321New Cases per Day3?53,13342,426<=5,0002Hospitalized3?10,8039,909<=3,0002Deaths per Day3334352<=5021 Minimum to achieve “herd immunity” (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
? Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths

? Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.Deaths are declining week-over-week, but new cases and hospitalizations are increasing.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.

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