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Housing and Demographics

by Calculated Risk on 4/25/2022 11:07:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing and Demographics

A brief excerpt:

The current demographics are now very favorable for home buying – and will remain somewhat positive for most of the decade, although most of the increase is now behind us.

Here is an even longer-term graph from 1960 through 2060. The surge in baby boomers reaching their 20s (red), led to a huge increase in apartment construction in the early 1970s.

Then home-buying became favorable in the late ’70s, but housing still slumped in the ’79 to ’82 period as the Volcker Fed raised interest rates to fight inflation. This is one reason I’ve been arguing Don’t Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust, look instead to the 1978 to 1982 period for lessons.

Population data is very useful in predicting long term trends, however, other factors (like in the 1980 period) can overwhelm demographics in the short term.

There is much more in the article.

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