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More Analysis on March Existing Home Sales

by Calculated Risk on 4/20/2022 10:44:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.77 million SAAR in February

Excerpt:

Sales in March (5.77 million SAAR) were down 2.7% from the previous month and were 4.5% below the March 2021 sales rate. Note: Sales for February 2022 were revised down from 6.02 million to 5.93 million.

The second graph shows existing home sales by month for 2021 and 2022.

Sales declined 4.5% year-over-year compared to March 2021. This was the eighth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year.

A key milestone will be when inventory is up year-over-year (YoY). My current guess is inventory will be up YoY near mid-year. Inventory will still be historically very low.

Also note that 30-year mortgage rates averaged 4.2% in March according to Freddie Mac. Now rates are around 5.35%. Sometimes people rush to buy as rates rise – anticipating further rate increases. However, eventually, higher rates will suppress demand. It seems likely we will see further negative impact on sales from higher rates, and more inventory in the coming months.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/ (Most content is available for free, so please subscribe).

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