by Calculated Risk on 1/20/2023 10:46:00 AM
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in December
Median prices are distorted by the mix (repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices).
The YoY change in the median price peaked at 25.2% in May 2021 and has now slowed to 2.3%. The YoY increase in December was the lowest since May 2020. Note that the median price usually starts falling seasonally in July, so the 1.5% decline in December in the median price was partially seasonal, however the 11.3% decline in the median price over the last six months has been much larger than the usual seasonal decline.
It is likely the median price will be down year-over-year in a few months – and Case-Shiller will follow.
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