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Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 1%

by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2022 08:15:00 AM

The BEA is scheduled to release the advance estimate of Q1 GDP this coming Thursday, April 28th. The consensus estimate is for a 1.0% increase in real GDP QoQ.

From BofA:

In the advance release of 1Q GDP, we expect growth slowed to a tepid 0.5% qoq saar clip from 6.9% qoq saar in 4Q 2021. Don’t be head-faked by the headline, however, as underlying demand remained robust. Indeed, we expect a slowing in inventory growth and a widening in the trade deficit to slice 3.5-4pp off real GDP growth this quarter, which means domestic final sales of 4-4.5%. [April 22 estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.5% (qoq ar). [April 20 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 1.3 percent on April 19, up from 1.1 percent on April 14. After recent releases from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -0.8 percent to 0.1 percent. [April 19 estimate]

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