by Calculated Risk on 3/11/2022 12:53:00 PM
This week’s trade and inventory data along with some adjustments to assumptions left our 1Q GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 1.0% qoq saar. [March 11 estimate]
We are downgrading our US GDP forecast to reflect higher oil prices and other drags on growth related to the war in Ukraine. … As a result, we now forecast GDP growth of +0.5%/+1.5%/+2.5%/+2.5% in 2022Q1-Q4 (vs. 1.0%/2.5%/2.5%/2.0% previously), lowering our 2022 real GDP growth forecast to +1.75% on a Q4/Q4 basis (vs. +2.0% previous; 2.7% consensus). [0.5% Q1 March 10 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 0.5 percent on March 8, up from 0.0 percent on March 1. [March 8 estimate]
What's your reaction?