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Q3 GDP Tracking: In 2% Range

by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2022 10:06:00 AM

The advance estimate for Q3 GDP will be released next Thursday and the consensus is that real GDP increased 2.4%, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis.

From BofA:

The smaller-than-expected decline in existing home sales lifted our 3Q US GDP tracker from 2.0% q/q saar to 2.1%. [October 20th estimate]emphasis added

From Goldman:

Following this morning’s data, we left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.4% (qoq ar). [October 20th estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 2.9 percent on October 19, up from 2.8 percent on October 14. After recent releases from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -3.6 percent to -3.3 percent. [October 19th estimate]

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