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Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: 20% YoY in March

by Calculated Risk on 4/27/2022 04:12:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for February were released this week. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow Research: February 2022 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Prices Accelerate Again

While these challenging conditions might be expected to drain the pool of buyers, and may still do so eventually, there are signs the market remains very competitive. Listings are going pending after about a week on the market and a large share of homes are continuing to sell above their asking price. Existing home sales have trended below 2021 levels, but that appears to be more a function of low inventory than a lack of demand. There are fewer than half the number of homes on the market than at this time in 2019 – the last comparable period prior to the pandemic – yet sales continue to trend above pre-pandemic levels. Changes in inventory and affordability will remain key to the housing decisions of prospective buyers in the months ahead.

Annual home price growth as reported by Case-Shiller are expected to accelerate in the national and 10-city indices and slow slightly in the 20-city index. Monthly appreciation in March is expected to decelerate from February in both city indices, and hold in the national index. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the March S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, May 31.
emphasis added

The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be a record 20.2% in March.

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